Crisis in Lebanon: "The beginning of the unknown."

Hezbollah Forces Collapse of Lebanese Government:

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Hezbollah and its allies forced the collapse of the government here on Wednesday, deepening a crisis over a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of a former prime minister.

Eleven of the cabinet's 30 ministers announced their resignations, a move that dissolves the government. They said they were prompted to act by the cabinet's refusal to convene an emergency session to oppose the tribunal, which is expected to indict members of Hezbollah.

Ten of the ministers announced their resignations just as Prime Minister Saad Hariri was meeting with President Obama in Washington. The opposition had hoped that all 11 ministers would resign together, to bring down the government at that time and expose Mr. Hariri to the maximum embarrassment.

But the 11th minister, Adnan Sayed Hussein, announced his resignation in a statement later in the evening, the National News Agency reported, after the meeting in Washington was over.

The collapse of the fragile government is the worst crisis in Lebanon since 2008, when an agreement reached in Qatar achieved a truce to end sectarian clashes that killed 81 people and brought Lebanon to the brink of a renewal of its 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990.

"We were committed but they were not," said Ammar Houri, a lawmaker with Mr. Hariri's bloc. He added that Mr. Hariri's allies were meeting to decide the next step.

...A leading opposition newspaper, Al Akhbar, underlined the sense of unease with an editorial headlined, "The beginning of the unknown."

What's likely to happen next? Well, Hezbollah, which is Lebanon's most prominent—and powerful, in both might and influence—Shiite movement, which "joined a unity government formed after elections in June 2009," is recognized as a compelling military force: "Most Lebanese also vividly recall the speed at which Hezbollah and its allies vanquished their foes in just a few days of street fighting in Beirut in May 2008." Their strength is so widely acknowledged that it could actually prevent violent skirmishes. Still:

Many here fear that "unknown" could turn bloody with street clashes in which Hezbollah is likely to prevail. An outbreak of violence might enable it to effectively seize control of the government and force a new reality on the streets of Beirut, at least until a new agreement can be reached under the auspices of foreign powers, who have long played an outsized role in the country's domestic affairs.

Other analysts dismiss the prospect of violence, given Hezbollah's strength. A more likely scenario, they say, is months of political stalemate, not unlike Lebanon witnessed between 2006 and 2008, before another deal is reached.

Only time will tell.